Estimated reading time: 1 minute
A new report from the Crime Prevention Research Center argues that America’s murder problem is far more geographically concentrated than many people realize.
According to researcher John Lott Jr., more than half of all murders recorded in 2024 occurred in just 63 counties nationwide. At the same time, more than half of all U.S. counties didn’t record a single murder.
The report is based primarily on the FBI’s 2024 Supplementary Homicide Report, with Florida data supplemented using the Florida Department of Law Enforcement’s incident-based reporting system because of incomplete FBI submissions from that state.
Murder remains heavily concentrated
The numbers paint a striking picture. According to Lott’s analysis:
- 53% of U.S. counties recorded zero murders in 2024.
- 69% of counties had one murder or fewer.
- The worst 1% of counties accounted for 41% of all murders.
- The worst 2% accounted for 54% of murders.
- The worst 5% accounted for 71% of murders nationwide.
Those figures come despite the highest-crime counties representing a much smaller share of the nation’s total counties. The report notes that the worst 2% of counties contain about 30% of the U.S. population but account for more than half of all murders.
Lott argues that even those high-crime counties don’t tell the entire story.
“Even within those counties, the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas,” he writes.
Concentration remains near historic highs
The report also examines how murder concentration has changed over time.
Between 2010 and 2014, the share of murders occurring in the nation’s worst 5% of counties dipped slightly from 71% to 69%. That figure then climbed to 73% during the violent crime surge in 2020 before easing back to 71% in 2024. According to the report, the concentration of murders remains close to decade-high levels even as national homicide totals have declined from their pandemic-era peaks.
One chart in the report shows that if the counties with the highest murder totals were excluded, the national murder rate would fall substantially.
Lott calculates that removing the worst 1% of counties would reduce the U.S. murder rate from 4.49 per 100,000 people to 3.31. Removing the worst 2% would lower it to 2.91, while excluding the worst 5% would reduce it to 2.42 per 100,000.
Big cities dominate the list
The report includes a ranking of counties with the highest number of murders in 2024.
Los Angeles County topped the list with 569 murders, followed by Cook County, Illinois (492), Harris County, Texas (457), New York City (325), Shelby County, Tennessee (288), Philadelphia (272), Wayne County, Michigan (266), and Dallas County, Texas (252).
Policy implications
Lott concludes that discussions about violent crime should recognize how unevenly murders are distributed across the country.
“Few appreciate how most of the counties in the US has no murders each year,” he writes. “Murder isn’t a nationwide problem. It’s a problem in a small set of urban areas and even in those counties murders are concentrated in small areas inside them.”
Whether policymakers agree with Lott’s conclusions or not, the report underscores a point that often gets lost in national crime debates: homicide is not spread evenly across America. Instead, according to the FBI data analyzed by the Crime Prevention Research Center, the overwhelming majority of murders continue to occur in a relatively small number of counties and often in even smaller pockets within those communities.
*** Buy and Sell on GunsAmerica! ***
Available on GunsAmerica Now
is a seasoned outdoorsman, lifelong hunter, and the kind of guy who’d rather track whitetails than scroll social media. As an editor for GunsAmerica, he’s got a sharp eye for spotting both solid gear and bad gun laws. Whether he’s deep in the woods or deep in editorial deadlines, Larry brings a no-nonsense, tell-it-like-it-is approach to firearms, hunting, and the great American tradition of self-reliance. If there’s a hot debate on gun rights or the latest in hunting tech, you can bet Larry’s got an opinion—and it’s probably backed up with both facts and field experience.
Experience:
– Licensed Bowhunter, Hunter, and Trapper – Experienced in ethical hunting and wildlife conservation.
– Concealed Carry Permit Holder (NYS & AZ) – Trained and licensed to carry in multiple states.
– 2A Journalist – Covering firearms legislation, Second Amendment issues, and gun rights for over a decade.
– Emergency Medical Technician (EMT) – Certified to provide emergency medical care in the field.
– Field-Tested Gear Reviewer – Hands-on experience with firearms, optics, and hunting tech.
