The number of firearm sales, as reflected in the National Shooting Sport Foundation (NSSF) adjusted numbers for the National Instant Background Check System (NICS) for September of 2026, has dropped by 2.3% compared to September of 2025. The raw number of all checks in the NICS for September dropped by .8%.
As stated by NSSF:
The September 2026 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,152,077 is a decrease of 2.3 percent compared to the September 2025 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,179,424. For comparison, the unadjusted September 2026 FBI NICS figure of 1,843,700 reflects a 0.8 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 1,858,763 in September 2025.
The drop breaks the trend of the last eight months, where the numbers for 2026 have been higher than the number of sales for 2025. Only two months in 2026 have had lower sales than in 2025. Those months are January and December.
One of the potential reasons for NICS checks being higher are the large increases in NICS checks for National Firearms Act (NFA) items in 2026. However, in September both the adjusted numbers for firearm sales and the raw NICS checks decreased. The increase of the NFA items is about 4.6% of the total NICS checks for September of 2026.
From NSSF:
The September 2026 NFA figure of 149,614 is an increase of 129,2 percent compared to the September 2025 figure of 65,273.
There are many potential reasons for the September decreases. Firearm sales thrive on uncertainty, both domestic and international, and on an abundance of disposable income. It may be the domestic uncertainty and international uncertainty have become baked in and the reduction of disposable income has dominated in September, as fuel prices have continued at high levels because of the conflict with Iran and uncertainty in the international oil markets.
The effects of a 2.5% drop in sales are not enormous. For enterprises on the edge, a couple of percent can make a significant difference. At the moment, NFA sales are very good. Enormous changes are coming to NFA sales. It seems almost certain that the vast regulatory burdens on the sale of silencers, short-barreled rifles, short-barreled shotguns, and even any other weapons (AOW) are going to be eliminated.
The other parts of the NFA involving machine guns and destructive devices are much less important to consumer sales. Machine guns and destructive devices are not large portions of the NFA consumer market. Silencers, short-barreled rifles, and, to a lesser extent, short-barreled shotguns are. Any other weapons (AOW) have not been an important part.
In the courts, the highly intrusive regulatory scheme of fingerprints, photos, and the requirement to be pre-approved by the ATF in a national registration scheme is on the edge of going away altogether.
This is a fair prediction: When most NFA restrictions are lifted, NFA sales will increase significantly.
The competition for silencer sales is going to increase as well. This correspondent expects many startups selling inexpensive silencers. We will see the introduction of many new models, short-barreled rifles, and pistols with available shoulder stocks. Some of this is already happening with pistols being sold with pistol braces. The difference between a pistol brace and a pistol stock is going to disappear. The biggest impact will be with silencers. The potential market for silencers is very large.
Expect silencers to be sold with firearms in packages, much like rifles and scopes or pistols and dot sights are being sold today.
October 9 Update: ATF Retreat Opens the Door to a Larger Suppressor Market
The regulatory changes anticipated here have now taken a major step forward. On October 9, ATF announced that it would stop enforcing specified NFA making, transfer, and registration requirements nationwide for suppressors, short-barreled rifles, short-barreled shotguns, and any other weapons (AOWs). As AmmoLand reported, the policy extends beyond the people protected by the Silencer Shop Foundation v. ATF injunction.
For suppressor buyers, that removes a substantial federal obstacle. Under the guidance, dealers can transfer suppressors using a Form 4473 and a NICS check, unless an exemption applies, without mandatory NFA registration or advance transfer approval. State restrictions remain in place, and businesses must still meet licensing and special occupational tax requirements. Machine guns and destructive devices remain fully subject to the NFA.
Short-barreled rifles and shotguns retain additional complications. ATF is temporarily declining to enforce the separate Gun Control Act dealer-transfer authorization requirement while developing a replacement approval process. Form 20 approval remains necessary for interstate transportation of SBRs and SBSs.
The market implication is straightforward: removing government-imposed barriers gives more gun owners an opportunity to buy equipment they already wanted.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
